The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is routinely used for maximum likelihood estimation in latent class analysis. However, the EM... Show moreThe Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is routinely used for maximum likelihood estimation in latent class analysis. However, the EM algorithm comes with no global guarantees of reaching the global optimum. We study the geometry of the latent class model in order to understand the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator. In particular, we characterize the boundary stratification of the binary latent class model with a binary hidden variable. For small models, such as for three binary observed variables, we show that this stratification allows exact computation of the maximum likelihood estimator. In this case we use simulations to study the maximum likelihood estimation attraction basins of the various strata and performance of the EM algorithm. Our theoretical study is complemented with a careful analysis of the EM fixed point ideal which provides an alternative method of studying the boundary stratification and maximizing the likelihood function. In particular, we compute the minimal primes of this ideal in the case of a binary latent class model with a binary or ternary hidden random variable. Show less
Focusing on the discrete probabilistic setting we generalize the combinatorial definition of cumulants to L-cumulants. This generalization... Show moreFocusing on the discrete probabilistic setting we generalize the combinatorial definition of cumulants to L-cumulants. This generalization keeps all the desired properties of the classical cumulants like semi-invariance and vanishing for independent blocks of random variables. These properties make L-cumulants useful for the algebraic analysis of statistical models. We illustrate this for general Markov models and hidden Markov processes in the case when the hidden process is binary. The main motivation of this work is to understand cumulant-like coordinates in alge- braic statistics and to give a more insightful explanation why tree cumulants give such an elegant description of binary hidden tree models. Moreover, we argue that L-cumulants can be used in the analysis of certain classical algebraic varieties. Show less
