Search results

(1 - 1 of 1)
ACTIVE INFERENCE FOR PREDICTIVE MODELS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL DOMAINS
Title
ACTIVE INFERENCE FOR PREDICTIVE MODELS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL DOMAINS
Creator
Komurlu, Caner
Date
2019
Description
Active inference is the method of selective information gathering during prediction in order to increase a predictive machine learning model's...
Show moreActive inference is the method of selective information gathering during prediction in order to increase a predictive machine learning model's prediction performance. Unlike active learning, active inference does not update the model, but rather provides the model with useful information during prediction to boost the prediction performance. To be able to work with active inference, a predictive model needs to exploit correlations among variables that need to be predicted. Then the model, while being provided with true values for some of the variables, can make more accurate predictions for the remaining variables.In this dissertation, I propose active inference methods for predictive models of spatio-temporal domains. I formulate and investigate active inference in two different domains: tissue engineering and wireless sensor networks. I develop active inference for dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) and feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs).First, I explore the effect of active inference in the tissue engineering domain. I design a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for vascularization of a tissue development site. The DBN model predicts probabilities of blood vessel invasion in regional scale through time. Then utilizing spatio-temporal correlations between regions represented as variables in the DBN model, I develop an active inference technique to detect the optimal time to stop a wet lab experiment. The empirical study shows that the active inference is able to detect the optimal time and the results are coherent with domain simulations and lab experiments.In the second phase of my research, I develop variance-based active inference techniques for dynamic Bayesian networks for the purpose of battery saving for wireless sensor networks (WSN). I propose the expected variance reduction active inference method to detect variables that reduce the overall variance the most. I first propose a DBN model of a WSN. I then compare the prediction performance of the DBN with Gaussian processes and linear chain graphical models on three different WSN data using several baseline active inference methods. After showing that DBNs perform better than the baseline predictive models, I compare the performance of expected variance reduction active inference method with the performances of baseline methods on the DBN, and show the superiority of the expected variance reduction on the three WSN data sets.Finally, to address the inference complexity and the limitation of representing linear correlations due to Gaussian assumption, I replace the DBN representation with a feed-forward neural network (FFNN) model. I first explore techniques to integrate observed values into predictions on neural networks. I adopt the input optimization technique. Finally, I discover two problems: model error and optimization overfitting. I show that the input optimization can mitigate the model error. Lastly, I propose a validation-based regularization approach to solve the overfitting problem.
Show less