Americans spend most of their time inside residences where they are exposed to a number of pollutants of both indoor and outdoor origin.... Show moreAmericans spend most of their time inside residences where they are exposed to a number of pollutants of both indoor and outdoor origin. Residential buildings also account for over 20% of total primary energy consumption in the U.S. and a similar proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, climate change is expected to affect building energy use and indoor air quality (IAQ) through both building design (i.e., via our societal responses to climate change) and building operation (i.e., via changing meteorological and ambient air quality conditions). The overarching objectives of this work are to develop a set of combined building energy and indoor air mass balance models that are generally representative of both the current (i.e., ~2010s) and future (i.e., ~2050s) U.S. residential building stock and to apply them using both current and future climate scenarios to estimate the impacts of climate change and climate change policies on building energy use, IAQ, and the prevalence of chronic health hazards in U.S. homes.
The developed model set includes over 4000 individual building models with detailed characteristics of both building operation and indoor pollutant physics/chemistry, and is linked to a disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach for estimating chronic health outcomes associated with indoor pollutant exposure. The future building stock model incorporates a combination of predicted changes in future meteorological conditions, ambient air quality, the U.S. housing stock, and population demographics.
Using the model set, we estimate the total site and source energy consumption for space conditioning in U.S. residences is predicted to decrease by ~37% and ~20% by mid-century (~2050s) compared to 2012, respectively, driven by decreases in heating energy use across the building stock that are larger than coincident increases in cooling energy use in warmer climates. Indoor concentrations of most pollutants of ambient origin are expected to decrease, driven by predicted reductions in ambient concentrations due to tighter emissions controls, with one notable exception of ozone, which is expected to increase in future climate scenarios. This work provides the first known estimates of the potential magnitude of impacts of expected climate changes on building energy use, IAQ, and the prevalence of chronic health hazards in U.S. homes. Show less
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