This research focuses on the effects of high frequency trading (HFT) on market liquidity in US futures market. This research utilizes a unique... Show moreThis research focuses on the effects of high frequency trading (HFT) on market liquidity in US futures market. This research utilizes a unique data set consisting of all book events for multiple underlying assets and contracts during calendar year 2018, covering all trading days information of E-mini S&P 500, Gold, Eurodollar, Crude Oil, Corn and Soybean futures with their nearby and deferred contract data each day. This study extends findings from existing HFT equity research (e.g. Brocher et al., 2016; Frino et al., 2019, etc.) that HFT promotes market liquidity, into the commodity market. It also addresses HFT’s contributions to price discovery, and find it varies by types of commodities. Furthermore, the research identifies how an HFT phenomenon, the Cancel Cluster, impacts the futures market. Also, this research verifies and extends the models in Frino et al. (2019) to multiple commodities. Finally, a series of promising future analyses are suggested. Show less
In futures markets, approaching the expiration days, most market participants close out existing positions of front month contract and open... Show moreIn futures markets, approaching the expiration days, most market participants close out existing positions of front month contract and open new positions of next month contract. The object of this dissertation is to evaluate the impact of contract rollover activities on unconditional volatility and conditional volatility modeling. First, two contract rollover measures, volume ratio and open interest ratio of front contract over next contract are created. Second, this study investigates the impact of contract rollover measures on both unconditional volatility estimation models and conditional volatility estimation models. Third, it examines the roles of contract rollover activities in unconditional volatility prediction models. Last, to further explore the relationship between contract rollover measures and unconditional volatilities, the vector autoregressive model is conducted to test granger causality. The findings show that the volume ratio and open interest ratio have significant impact on unconditional volatilities and conditional volatility in soybean, wheat, gold, copper, crude oil, and natural gas futures markets, except on conditional volatility in silver futures market. Alternative models that incorporate contract rollover measures outperform benchmark models that do not incorporate contract rollover measures in both estimation models and prediction models. Moreover, the findings provide the strong evidence that there is significant bidirectional granger causality among volume ratio, open interest ratio and unconditional volatilities in all investigated futures markets. The empirical results confirm the important role of contract rollover on volatility behavior and are beneficial to futures exchanges to set and monitor margins precisely for their customer’s trading accounts in commodity futures markets. Show less
