This research presents new methods to apply safety standards to Detect and Avoid (DAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), using... Show moreThis research presents new methods to apply safety standards to Detect and Avoid (DAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), using maneuvering target tracking and encounter models.Previous DAA research methods focused on predefined, linear encounter generation. The new estimation and prediction methods in this research are based on the target tracking of maneuvering intruders using Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation and a realistic random encounter generation based on an established encounter model.When tracking maneuvering intruders there is limited knowledge of changes in intruder behavior beyond the current measurement. The standard Kalman filter (KF) with a single motion model is limited in performance for such problems due to ineffective responses as the target maneuvers. In these cases, state estimation can be improved using MMAE. It is assumed that the current active dynamic model is one of a discrete set of models, each of which is the basis for a separate filter. These filters run in parallel to estimate the states of targets with changing dynamics. In practical applications of multiple model systems, one of the most popular algorithms for the MMAE is the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimator. In the IMM, the regime switching is modeled by a finite state homogeneous Markov Chain. This is represented by a transition probability matrix characterizing the mode transitions. A Markov Chain is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the previous event.This research uses the hazard states estimates (which are derived from DAA standards) to analyze the IMM performance, and then presents a new method to predict the hazard states. To reduce the prediction error, this new method accounts for maneuvering intruders. The new prediction method uses the prediction phase in the IMM algorithm to predict the future intruder aircraft states based on the current and past sensor measurements. The estimation and prediction methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between UAS and manned aircraft in the National Airspace System through improvement of the trajectory estimation used to inform the DAA sensor certification process. Show less
