Data-Driven Modeling for Advancing Near-Optimal Control of Water-Cooled Chillers
Description
Hydronic heating and cooling systems are among the most common types of heating and cooling systems installed in older existing buildings, especially commercial buildings. The results of this study based on the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) indicates chillers account for... Show moreHydronic heating and cooling systems are among the most common types of heating and cooling systems installed in older existing buildings, especially commercial buildings. The results of this study based on the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) indicates chillers account for providing cooling in more than half of the commercial office building floorspaces in the U.S. Therefore, to address the need of improving energy efficiency of chillers systems operation, research studies developed different models to investigate different chiller sequencing approaches. Engineering-based models and empirical models are among the popular approaches for developing prediction models. Engineering-based models utilize the physical principles to calculate the thermal dynamics and energy behaviors of the systems and require detailed system information, while the empirical models deploy machine learning algorithms to develop relationships between input and output data. The empirical models compared to the engineering-based approach are more practical in a system’s energy prediction because of accessibility to required data, superiority in model implementation and prediction accuracy. Moreover, selecting near accurate chiller prediction models for the chiller sequencing needs to consider the importance of each input variable and its contribution to the overall performance of a chiller system, as well as the ease of application and computational time. Among the empirical modeling methods, ensemble learning techniques overcome the instability of the learning algorithm as well as improve prediction accuracy and identify input variable importance. Ensemble models combine multiple individual models, often called base or weak models, to produce a more accurate and robust predictive model. Random Forest (RF) and Extra Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models are considered as ensemble models which offer built-in mechanisms for assessing feature importance. These techniques work by measuring how much each feature contributes to the overall predictive performance of the ensemble.In the first objective of this work the frequency of hydronic cooling systems in the U.S. building stock for applying potential energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on chiller plants are explored. Results show that the central chillers inside the buildings are responsible for providing cooling for more than 50% of the commercial buildings with areas greater than 9,000 m2(~100,000 ft2). In addition, hydronic cooling systems contribute to the highest Energy Use Intensity (EUI) among other systems, with EUI of 410.0 kWh/m2 (130.0 kBtu/ft2). Therefore, the results of this objective support developing accurate prediction models to assess the chiller performance parameters as an implication for chiller sequencing control strategies in older existing buildings. The second objective of the dissertation is to evaluate the performance of chiller sequencing strategy for the existing water-cooled chiller plant in a high-rise commercial building and develop highly accurate RF chiller models to investigate and determine the input variables of greatest importance to chiller power consumption predictions. The results show that the average value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) for all three RF chiller models are 5.3% and 30 kW, respectively, for the validation dataset, which confirms a good agreement between measured and predicted values. On the other hand, understanding prediction uncertainty is an important task to confidently reporting smaller savings estimates for different chiller sequencing control strategies. This study aims to quantify prediction uncertainty as a percentile for selecting an appropriate confidence level for chillers models which could lead to better prediction of the peak electricity load and participate in demand response programs more efficiently. The results show that by increasing the confidence level from 80% to 90%, the upper and lower bounds of the demand charge differ from the actual value by a factor of 3.3 and 1.7 times greater, respectively. Therefore, it proves the significance of selecting appropriate confidence levels for implementation of chiller sequencing strategy and demand response programs in commercial buildings. As the third objective of this study, the accuracy of these prediction models with respect to the preprocessing, selection of data, noise analysis, effect of chiller control system performance on the recorded data were investigated. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the impacts of different data resolution, level of noise and data smoothing methods on the chiller power consumption and chiller COP prediction based on time-series Extra Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The results of applying the smoothing methods indicate that the performance of chiller COP and the chiller power consumption models have improved by 2.8% and 4.8%, respectively. Overall, this study would guide the development of data-driven chiller power consumption and chiller COP prediction models in practice. Show less
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