Binary hidden Markov models and varieties

Binary hidden Markov models and varieties AS2012 Special Volume, part 2: This issue includes a second series of papers from talks, posters and collaborations resulting from and inspired by the Algebraic Statistics in the Alleghenies Conference at Penn State, which took place in July 2012. Critch, Andrew Creator Faculty MATH / Applied Mathematics Illinois Institute of Technology Affiliated department Binary hidden Markov models algebraic statistics parameter identi ability model selection rational and birational maps rationality questions higher-dimensional varieties semi-algebraic sets Grobner basis techniques 2013 2013 This paper closely examines HMMs in which all the hidden random variables are binary. Its main contributions are (1) a birational parametrization for every such HMM, with an explicit inverse for recovering the hidden parameters in terms of observables, (2) a semialgebraic model membership test for every such HMM, and (3) minimal dening equations for the 4-node fully binary model, comprising 21 quadrics and 29 cubics, which were computed using Grobner bases in the cumulant coordinates of Sturmfels and Zwiernik. The new model parameters in (1) are rationally identiable in the sense of Sullivant, Garcia-Puente, and Spielvogel, and each model's Zariski closure is therefore a rational projective variety of dimension 5. Grobner basis computations for the model and its graph are found to be considerably faster using these parameters. In the case of two hidden states, item (2) supersedes a previous algorithm of Schonhuth which is only generically dened, and the dening equations (3) yield new invariants for HMMs of all lengths 4. Such invariants have been used successfully in model selection problems in phylogenetics, and one can hope for similar applications in the case of HMMs. Article