Tuesday, February 10th, 2015 | TechNews

 

Derby Day Magic

Nathan McMahon
SPORTS EDITOR

This weekend of Premier League
action featured two of the premier derby games
of the season; the Merseyside derby and the
North London derby. The Merseyside derby
featured a Liverpool side in the best form of
any team in the league and an Everton squad in
danger of slipping into a relegation battle. The
first half featured strong attacking movements
by both sides with the best chance of the half
coming from 19 year old Liverpool youngster,
Jordan Ibe, who drove from midfield and cut
past an Everton defender for a 30 yard wonder
strike that struck the far post and bounced safely
away from the goal. In the end neither team
was clinical in the final third making a goalless
draw was a fair assessment of the match. The
other storyline of the match was the fact that
this was Liverpool captain and living legend,
Steven Gerrard’s final derby in which he is the
fourth leading scorer in the matchup and has
only lost 5 out of 33 derby games. His play was
average for the match and unable to conjure
up derby day brilliance for the Reds, but will

be remembered for all the memorable derby
moments throughout his career. The draw holds
Liverpool in 7th place and five points out of the
top four while Everton remains in 12th, just 7
points out of the relegation zone.

The best match of the weekend
was easily the North London derby where
Tottenham Hotspurs battled the Gunners
to dramatic 2-1 victory. In the first half the
Gunners struck first when Mesut Ozil volleyed
home an Olivier Giroud misfire for his second
goal in two matches. Later in the half, Spurs
answered when a corner was headed to the far
post where the predatory Harry Kane scored his
let goal of the season in all competitions as he
calmly passed the ball into the net from a foot
out. Neither team was able to strike again until
Harry Kane came calling again the 86th minute
when he beautifully looped a header away and
over the Arsenal keeper into the far side netting
to give Tottenham the most dramatic North
London win of the last few seasons. Arsenal now
falls to sixth with 42 points and Tottenham leaps
ahead to fifth with 43 points.

Adverfisa in

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Statistical perspective _
offers Super Bowlanalysrs

Jerry Sha
TECH NEWS WRITER

As many of you will still recall,
the Super Bowl happened a few days ago,
and according to Seattle Times, this year, the
crowning moment of the American football
season ended with, “the worst play call in Super
Bowl history.” ' ’

Before we dig into the numbers
behind what was to many fans a borderline
treasonous decision, let’s bring the readers who
are not so well informed on the happenings of
American football up to speed. (If the readership
of this publication mirrored the demographic
distribution of the world, about 98.5% of those
reading this article would not have even watched
the Super Bowl).

The Seattle Seahawks played the role
of defending champions in this year Super Bowl
game. The star players which form the core
of their offensive lineup are Russell Wilson,
the phenomenal quarterback, and Marshawn
Lynch, a star rusher who is prodigiously gifted
in terms of physical size, strength, and dexterity.

In the final quarter of the game, the
Seahawks were down 28—24 and on the wrong
end of the field to score. However, thanks to
an outstanding 30+ yard pass, followed by one
of the most incredible catches in Super Bowl
history, in which the ball bounced no fewer
than five times off the body of the defender and
intended receiver before finally being caught,
without ever touching the ground.

This remarkable chain of events

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ended with the Seahawks in possession of the
ball, within one yard of the end zone, and with
a generous three downs and over a minute left
on the clock. Scoring a touchdown would have
all but precluded any possibility of a loss, and
Patriot fans were justifiably tittering on the edge
of despair, for in this exact kind of situation
inthe history of the NFL, according to Pro-
Football website, the offensive team goes on to
win the game 85% of the time.

However, instead of handing the
ball to Marshawn Lynch, who has reliably and
very visibly performed beyond expectations all
through the season, Mr. Wilson choose instead
to pass the ball to a receiver who appeared
to be open. The next few moments are well
remembered by anyone who has seen the game,
when New England intercepted the pass and
thus destroyed theseemingly certain Seahawk
victory.

This season, Seattle secured a first
down or touchdown 81 percent of the time
they attempted a run with less than two yards
to go on third or fourth down. That was the
second—best mark in the league, well above the
65% overall average. Meanwhile, New England’s
defense was unusually porous against such
plays: they allowed first downs or touchdowns
on 81% of such attempts, ranking dead last in
the NFL.

The phrase Monday night
quarterbacking originated no doubt in American
football to describe the kind of verbal and other
abuse Mr. Wilson would quickly receive for his
actions, but no amount of appeal to hindsight
and hypocrisy seems to stem the tide of ruthless

  
    
 
       
 
       
      
 
 
       
 
      
     

Thursday, February 12
Swimming and Diving
Liberal Arts
Championships

@ Coe College

Priday, §ebrnary 3.3
Swimming and
Diving

Liberal Arts
Championships

@ Coe College

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criticism against the Seahawks. Its been nearly
a week now since the game, let us now, with
hopefully cool heads, look once again at the
statistics and facts available to Mr. Wilson and
his coach.

Let us recall that in game theory, there
is no move which cannot be countered if the
opposing party knows of it in advance. If it truly
was, as suggested by numerous hot blooded fans,
set in stone that a run by Marshawn Lynch was
the only thing that the Seahawks could have
done in the situation, the Patriots would have
simply made a column of men eleven deep right
in front of Lynch and steamrollered him the
moment he touched the ball.

So it is certain then, that there was a
decision to be made on that play,_ that at least
the possibility of a pass had to be kept open to
ensure that the rush play would have a nonzero
chance of success.

Now, let us look at the probability
numbers for the passing and running of the ball.

In a textbook example of a statistical
equilibrium, during the 2014 season, offenses
on an opponent’s one-yard line ran two-thirds
of the time (there were 212 rushes and 106
passes). The running plays went for touchdowns
57.5% of the time...and the passing plays went
for touchdowns 57.5% of the time. If either play
offered a slightly higher probability of success,
the proportion of throw and rush decisions
would have, in turn, shifted away from one third
to some other number. Mr. Wilson had exactly
three plays to make, so it is therefore sensible,
by this statistically proven model, that at least
one of his three expected plays be a passing play.

Saturday, February 14
Swimming and Diving
Liberal Arts
Championships

@ Coe College

Women's Basketball
vs. Cent. Christian
2 pm.

Men's Basketball
@ Maranatha Baptist
3 pm.

Moreover, throughout the 2014
season, the pass interception rate for Mr.
Wilson was 1.5%, while the 1.4% of the rushing
plays made by Mr. Lynch were fumbled.
Mathematically, there should have been a
marginal benefit of attempting the two rushes
first, but in the end, the 0.1% difference in
expected risk of failure is quite arguably non-
significant.

In the end, the decision to pass was a
well meditated and reasonable choice. Statistical
measurement finds that although the defense is
expecting with 66.6% probability a rush play,
a passing play in that particular situation had
just as high a chance of success, just as low a
chance of failure, as the rush play that all parties
expected. Let us realize that had the past been
successful, Mr. Wilson would have been lauded
by the same shameless critics for his ingenuity
and daring, and even had the pass failed (42.5%
expected), but not been intercepted (1.5%
expected), the Patriots would have been very
much been more threatened by the possibility of
a pass play, and perhaps changed their lopsided
ratio of eight defenders on the line and a meager
three to cover receivers.

In the end, the Seahawk was
unexpected and regrettable, not because of a
particularly ill informed decision, (certainly not
because of Illuminati intervention) but because
it ended with a play that by all means was the
statistically correct decision, but failed in the
most improbable and catastrophic way possible.

     

Tuesday, February 17
Women's Basketball
vs. Lincoln Christian
7 pm.

Men's Basketball
@ Carthage
5 pm.

Thursday, gebruary a?
Women's Basketball
vs. Moody Bible

5 pm.